A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
